AGENTFLOW · ANTICIPATE

It watches the numbers you answer for.

You don't have to ask. AgentFlow works around the clock, catches problems and openings early, and comes to you with what to do about it while there is still time.

AGENTFLOW · TUESDAY 02:14 · A PROBLEMwatching order margin

Order margin is slipping. Down 0.6 points since Monday, and on pace for 2.1 by Friday.

Why

Expedited freight in the Northeast is running at 3.1 times normal. Since the carrier change on June 1, ground shipping misses the two-day promise, so orders are being upgraded automatically.

Cost

About $212K of margin by Friday if nothing changes.

Fix

Ship Northeast orders from Newark, which restores two-day ground for 84% of them. Pause automatic upgrades on orders under $75.

Who

Routing belongs to the VP of logistics. Both moves are inside the logistics playbook.

Approve the rerouteSee the evidenceNot now
Sources: orders, shipments, carrier_invoices · fresh 9 min · confidence 0.91 · run 8f3a2c
DURING THE WEEK, NOT AFTER IT

The difference is when you find out.

A dashboard tells you where you fell short. Anticipate tells you while you can still do something about it.

Tuesday, 02:14

Anticipate tells you. Down 0.6 points, with the cause and the fix attached. The reroute is approved by nine.

Friday, 16:00

The weekly review tells you. Down 2.1 points, well explained, with nothing left to do about it.

Same week, same problem. Illustrative.

WHAT IT SENDS YOU

It catches what is going wrong, and what is going right.

The same watch that catches a leak catches an opening: a segment converting better than forecast, a supplier whose price just dropped, accounts that have outgrown their plan and have not been asked. Either way the note has the same five parts: what, why, what it is worth, what to do, and who decides.

AGENTFLOW · TUESDAY 02:14 · A PROBLEMwatching order margin

Order margin is slipping. Down 0.6 points since Monday, and on pace for 2.1 by Friday.

Why

Expedited freight in the Northeast is running at 3.1 times normal. Since the carrier change on June 1, ground shipping misses the two-day promise, so orders are being upgraded automatically.

Cost

About $212K of margin by Friday if nothing changes.

Fix

Ship Northeast orders from Newark, which restores two-day ground for 84% of them. Pause automatic upgrades on orders under $75.

Who

Routing belongs to the VP of logistics. Both moves are inside the logistics playbook.

Approve the rerouteSee the evidenceNot now
Sources: orders, shipments, carrier_invoices · fresh 9 min · confidence 0.91 · run 8f3a2c
AGENTFLOW · THURSDAY 09:05 · AN OPENINGwatching net revenue retention

Fourteen accounts have outgrown their plan. Nobody has called them.

Why

Usage has run above 90% of the plan limit for three straight weeks in 14 accounts. None has an open expansion deal in the CRM.

Worth

About $380K in new annual recurring revenue at list price.

Do

Offer the next tier to the nine accounts renewing within 90 days. Offer an add-on pack to the other five.

Who

The expansion playbook gives these to the account owners. Outreach is drafted for each of them.

Send the draftsSee the accountsNot now
Sources: usage_daily, subscriptions, crm_opportunities · fresh 22 min · confidence 0.89 · run 2b7d90
HOW IT KNOWS

It knows more than the numbers.

A number moving is a fact. Knowing why it moved, what it is attached to, and what you are allowed to do about it is judgment. Anticipate draws on three layers to get there, and you govern all three.

SEMANTICS

What the numbers mean.

Your metrics, defined once and governed: measures, dimensions, and how each metric rolls up into the next. Order margin is made of revenue, cost of goods, freight and returns, and each of those is made of something too. That tree is how AgentFlow knows where to look.

ONTOLOGY

How the business fits together.

The things your company is made of and how they connect. Orders ship on carriers from distribution centers. SKUs come from suppliers and run on lines. Accounts have contracts, seats and owners. It is how a number gets traced to a thing someone can fix, and to the person who owns it.

CONTEXT

What is going on, and what the rules are.

The contract that renewed on June 1. The promotion that ends Friday. The margin floor, the approval policy, the playbook for a late supplier, and what happened the last time this came up. It is how AgentFlow knows what matters and what you are allowed to do about it.

Semantics find the change. Ontology finds the cause. Context finds the fix.

SEMANTICS · A METRIC TREE

Order margin, watched.

A metric tree finds the change. It takes ontology and context to find the fix. One tree of three, drawn from the illustrative order-margin case.

METRIC TREE · ORDER MARGINmoves: contribution profit · quarterly EBITDA
Order margin24.9% · down 0.6 pts since Monday · on pace for 2.1 by Friday
Net revenue per order▼ 0.9%
  • average selling price▲ 0.2%
  • discount rate▲ 1.1 pts
  • promo mix▲ 4 pts
  • basket size▼ 0.3%
Cost of goods per order▲ 0.1%
  • unit cost by SKU▲ 0.1%
  • supplier price variancesteady
  • product mix▲ 0.2%
Fulfillment cost per order▲ 31%
  • expedite rate3.1x normal
  • freight cost per shipment▲ 12%
  • carrier mixnew carrier: 64% of Northeast
  • split-shipment rate▲ 0.4 pts
  • pick-and-pack coststeady
Returns and refunds▲ 0.2 pts
  • return rate▲ 0.1 pts
  • refund per returnsteady
  • restocking coststeady
BEYOND THE TREE
Ontology

Order → shipment → carrier → lane → distribution center. Northeast orders ship from Columbus. Newark can serve 84% of them by two-day ground.

Context · contract

The carrier changed on June 1. The new contract is cheaper per mile and a day slower in the Northeast.

Context · policy

Any order that would miss the two-day promise is upgraded to expedited, automatically.

Context · playbook

Moving volume between distribution centers needs no finance approval when the margin effect is positive. The VP of logistics owns routing.

THE CALL

Ship Northeast orders from Newark. Pause automatic upgrades on orders under $75. Sent to the VP of logistics for approval. Margin protected by Friday: about $212K.

Illustrative. Your trees come from your own semantic layer, and the real ones usually run deeper. Two more trees, net revenue retention and on-time in-full, are on the Use cases page.

HOW IT BEHAVES

A good colleague, by design.

Anything can send alerts. The hard part is being worth listening to at 2 a.m. These are the rules it works under.

It speaks up only when it can name the cause.

A move inside the normal range gets no message. A move it can't explain is reported as unexplained, not dressed up.

It knows who to tell.

Routing belongs to logistics. That account belongs to her. The ontology says who owns what, so the note goes to the person who can act.

It proposes only what the playbook allows.

The fix comes from your policies and your playbooks, not from a model's imagination.

A person signs first.

It recommends. A named person approves. The plan is frozen before it is sent, so what runs is exactly what was signed, and it all goes on the ledger.

UNDERNEATH

It is a workflow that never clocks out.

Anticipate is not a separate engine. It is a compiled workflow that is always on: the same fixed path, the same checks, the same ledger as everything else AgentFlow runs.

  1. measure the metric and every driverruns as code
  2. data is freshcheck
  3. spot a move outside the normal rangeruns as code
  4. walk the tree to the causecalls a model
  5. the cause explains the movecheck
  6. size what it is worthruns as code
  7. match the playbook, draft the fixcalls a model
  8. the owner approvesa person decides
  9. make the change, record itchanges something
runs as codecheckcalls a modela person decideschanges somethingfans out

Most of those steps run as code, so a check costs about a cent on the benchmark workflow. That is what makes it practical to look every hour, at every segment, all year.

Questions about Anticipate

Does it act on its own?

Only where you have said it can. By default it watches, diagnoses and recommends, and a named person approves. When a step changes something in the real world, the plan is frozen with a fingerprint of its inputs before it goes for approval, so what runs is exactly what was reviewed.

Won't it bury us in alerts?

It is built not to. It stays quiet while a metric is inside its normal range, and it speaks up only when the drivers explain the move. A movement it can't explain is reported as unexplained, not dressed up as a finding.

Where do the metric trees and the business context come from?

The metrics come from the semantic layer you already govern, so there is one definition of margin for people and agents alike. Playbooks are packaged as skills. Facts are kept in project memory and carried from run to run. All of it lives in your own storage, versioned.

What does it cost to watch a metric around the clock?

Each check is a compiled workflow, so most of its steps run as code and call no model. On our benchmark workflow a run costs about a cent. You can see the cost per run while you set it up, and hold to it afterward.

Does it only look for problems?

No. The same trees that show a number slipping show one running ahead. It reports openings the same way it reports problems: what it sees, why, what it is worth, what to do, and who decides.

TALK TO US

Pick the number you can't afford to miss.

Bring the metric you check first every morning. We will sketch its tree with you and show you what watching it around the clock would look like.

Read the docs

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